18
DEZ
2023
The attacks carried out by the Yemeni Houthi militias on ships in the Red Sea are part of a far-reaching wave of attacks by militias cooperating with Iran, which took place after the Hamas massacre of the 7th. October began and applies predominantly to Israeli and US destinations. From southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is shelling the north of Israel, whose forces in turn target Hezbollah; so far, four civilians and eight soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, on the Lebanese side over 130 people, including 17 civilians and 94 Hezbollah fighters. 1] The risk of an escalation towards unrestricted war is considered high. In addition, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria have resumed the shelling of US military bases; from the 17th October to the 15th. According to US data, 92 attacks were carried out in December, around half in Iraq, the second half in Syria. 2] Recently, Iraqi Shiite militias even attacked the US embassy in Baghdad; however, according to US data, there was little damage, people were not injured.[ 3] Although the US forces sometimes carry out counterattacks in Syria and Iraq, they are clearly trying not to allow the skirmishes with the Shiite militias to escalate uncontrollably.
The background is that a rampant new war in the Middle East in the Middle East would bind US forces on a large scale in the region. This is to be the case at a time when Washington actually wants to focus its capacities on the Asia-Pacific region in order to strengthen its positions there in its central power struggle against China. The Biden administration has already been distracted by the latter by its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia - a step that more and more US Republicans and especially the promising presidential candidate Donald Trump are sharply critical of. The United States is also in a serious conflict of objectives in the Gaza Strip. On the one hand, they cannot refuse to support Israel, their by far most important ally in the region. On the other hand, the Israeli warfare, which is denounced worldwide, is pushing even halfway stable pacification of the Middle East further and further away, which greatly reduces the chances for Washington to withdraw its own forces there in order to align them with the Asia-Pacific region. This Monday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Chief of Staff Charles Q. Brown in Israel to insist on greater military restraint. 4]
In this situation, the attacks of the Houthi militias on ships in the Red Sea are further putting the USA in trouble. Massive attacks on Houthi positions, as Israel demands, threatened to escalate the situation even more in the direction of a war far into the region. So far, the US armed forces have largely limited themselves to fending off the Houthi attacks. On Saturday, for example, a US warship shot down 14 flying drones; a British warship destroyed another drone. 5] The attacks of the Houthi on two cargo ships last Friday have further exacerbated the situation. After the attacks, several large shipping companies, Maersk, the Hamburg Hapag-Lloyd and MSC, announced that they will avoid the Red Sea as long as the danger persists. Only the long detour around the African continent can be considered as a replacement. 6] The consequences for trade and industry are heavy. A good ten percent of all world trade is handled via the Red Sea. Longer routes cost time and money, make the goods that have to be brought to their buyers more expensive and strain supply chains because pre-products arrive late. Experts warn that the prices for crude oil and for liquefied gas, which is delivered to Europe from the Persian Gulf, for example, could also escalate. 7]
Washington is now driving on two tracks. On the one hand, according to reports, the armed forces have already identified possible targets for attacks on the Houthi militias. 8] On the other hand, the Biden administration is trying to gather a broad naval coalition in the Red Sea - in the hope of being able to deter the Houthis with it. Corresponding considerations were already held at the beginning of December; concrete discussions with allied states were also held two weeks ago. 9] Germany is one of them. The Federal Government confirmed on Friday that it is currently considering participation in a multinational naval operation. Except for the United States and Great Britain, France is already present on the ground with its navy; the USA is also negotiating with the Netherlands about their participation in the intervention. The German Navy is also considered a preferred candidate because it was involved in the EU naval operation Atalanta to fight pirates in the Horn of Africa from 2008 to 2022, maintained a logistics base in Djibouti until 2021 and thus has a good knowledge of the strategically very important marine region. Specifically, "Frigates of the Saxony class" would be considered, it is said: These are "particularly capable of anti-aircraft defense". The position of aerial reconnaissance is also possible.[ 10]
First public demands that the Bundeswehr should participate in a naval intervention in the Red Sea are now coming from the German economy and the FDP. For example, Martin Kröger, the Managing Director of the Association of German Shipowners (VDR), is quoted as saying that it is "appropriate if Germany would also participate accordingly." 11] After all, German merchant ships had already been accompanied by the German Navy at the Horn of Africa for protection from pirates - with success. The chairman of the Defense Committee of the Bundestag, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, also demanded at the end of last week: "We should support the Navy protecting the ships together with international partners." 12] It is only "logical that all those who are dependent on their goods being guided through the Red Sea participate". Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirms that a decision on a possible deployment has not yet been made. If there is a German participation in the intervention, then the Bundeswehr would be directly involved if the current tensions escalate to an open war in the Middle East. The danger that this will happen in the next few days, weeks or months threatens in the Red Sea as well as on the Israeli-lebanese border, in Syria and Iraq.
More on the topic: The West in conflict of goals.
[1] Israel says it struck Hezbollah sites after attacks from Lebanon. reuters.com 17.12.2023.
[2] Laurence Norman, Sune Engel Rasmussen: Iran Hoped to Profit From Israel-Hamas War, but Big Gains Still Elude It. wsj.com 15.12.2023.
[3] Qassim Abdul-Zahra: A rocket attack targets the US Embassy in Baghdad, causing minor damage but no casualties. apnews.com 08.12.2023.
[4] Willy Lowry: US defence secretary to press Israel on next phase of Gaza war. thenationalnews.com 17.12.2023.
[5] Jill Lawless: US and Britain say their navies shot down 15 attack drones over the Red Sea. apnews.com 16.12.2023.
[6] Jannis Hagmann: Are there a threat of consequences for the world market? taz.de 17.12.2023.
[7] Giorgio Cafiero: Will oil prices rise after Red Sea shipping curbs amid Houthi attacks? aljazeera.com 16.12.2023.
[8] Liam Stack, Mike Ives, Gaya Gupta: Tensions Spilling Over From Gaza to Red Sea Escalate. nytimes.com 16.12.2023.
[9] Peter Baker: U.S. Considers Task Force to Guard Red Sea Ships From Iranian Proxy Forces. nytimes.com 04.12.2023.
[10] Peter Carstens, Christoph Ehrhardt: A naval power against Houthi attacks. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 13.12.2023.
[11] Shipowners avoid the Suez Canal. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 18.12.2023.
[12] Strack-Zimmermann wants to deploy the German Navy in the Red Sea. n-tv.de 16.12.2023.